Global Financial connection | December LPR quotation continues to follow the soldiers and still have room for LPR next year?

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December LPR offer was released

December loan market offerinterest rate(LPR) announced today.Among them,高速资讯 the 1 -year LPR is 3.45%, and the LPR of more than 5 years is 4.20%, which is the same as last month.Does the maintenance unchanged in December meet market expectations?Since the realization of asymmetric downgrade in August, why does it continue to "keep the soldiers"?Come to hearEverbright BankInterpretation of Macroearian researcher of the Financial Market Department.

LPR maintained stable in December, which is in line with market expectations

Zhou Maohua: In December, LPR maintained stable, in line with market expectations.December MLF policyinterest rateContinue to maintain stability. In November, the overall performance of financial data performed smoothly, plus part ofbankThe pressure of net interest margin is still high, and the market has been stable for the market to maintain stability.

In the case of stable policy interest rates, financial institutions are more supporting financial institutions through tapping LPR reform dividends and deposit interest rate adjustment mechanisms, guiding financial institutions to increase the weak links in the real economy and key emerging areas, and promote the steady cost of the real economy financing.

In December, LPR continued to follow the three factors that the soldiers did not move.

Zhou Maohua: In December, LPR interest rates continued to follow the soldiers. We believe that the following are mainly affected by the following aspects:

First, interest rates are at a reasonable level.The macroeconomic data in November shows that the need for steadily restoration in my country, and the overall performance of real economic loans and social integration. In the first 11 months, my countryNew creditThe total number of total volume has exceeded 2022, reflecting that the interest rate of the loan market is in a reasonable range, and the urgency of the short -term LPR interest rate is not high.

Secondly, the pressure difference pressure is relatively high.As of the end of the third quarter, the net interest margin of domestic banks was 1.73%at a low level in the past years, and the net interest difference pressure of some banks was high.The short -term bank's net interest margin still faces a certain pressure. On the one hand, domestic financial institutions continue to guide bank financial institutions to further make the real economy.On the other hand, the deposit ratio of bank deposits is still higher.

Third, there is still room for policy dividends.Earlier, a series of policy measures for the stabilization of the property market were introduced to actively finance,currencyPolicies and other policy dividends still have room for release.

Generally speaking, under the situation of maintaining the recovery of the economy and uncertain economic recovery rhythm, domestic policies need more economic data guidelines, and comprehensive consideration of macroeconomic, price recovery rhythm, policy interest rates, real economic financing needs and bank net interest ratesPoor pressure.

Will LPR quotation be reduced next year?

Does LPR offer next year still have the power and space?Listen togetherMinsheng BankAnalysis of Zhang Liyun, director of the Financial Market Research Center of the Institute.

In 2024, the central bank has a high probability to guide LPR moderate downward.

Zhang Liyun: In December, the LPR quotation continued to "do not move according to the soldiers", and the LPR of 1 year and 5 years of the year cumulatively lowered 20 and 10bp, respectively.In 2024, the central bank's probability will still guide the LPR moderate downward, but the space is narrowed, and the need for further control of the debt cost is still strong.

The Central Financial Work Conference proposed that "to increase policy implementation and work advancement, maintain reasonable liquidity, and continue to decline in financing costs."The cost of financing is steadily and reduced. "In addition, the Central Economic Work Conference also proposed that" promoting comprehensive social financing costs and steadily decrease ", which means that the central bank's high probability will still reduce policy interest rates in 2024, and guide LPR to decline moderately, and then activate production to activate production.ConsumptionCreditneed.

LPR offer further downward space will narrow up

Zhang Liyun: But the LPR quotation and the new loan interest rate will narrow down.Considering that during the credit investment process, some loan interest rates have been reduced and the interest rate interest rates have "inverted", which in turn forms the phenomenon of emptiness of funds and disrupts the reform of the interest rate reform.To this end, the central bank's third -quarter cargo report proposed that "maintaining the order of the loan market and further promoting financial institutions to reduce the actual loan interest rate."

Combining the maintenance difference and profit proposed by the central bank in the early stage are reasonable, it also means that the regulators do not want to have too low loan interest rates, thereby retention of the bank's retaining capacity to cope with the debt, maintain stable and sustainable operation, and improve the efficiency of capital operation.Prevent the funds for empty rotor interests caused by low interest rates of corporate loans.Under the interest rate transmission mechanism of "revitalizing stock, improving efficiency" and "market interest rate+central bank guidance → LPR → loan interest rate", LPR and new loan interest rates will narrow down.

At the same time, in order to achieve "flexible and moderate, accurate and effective", structural tools are also expected to play a greater role.Through the combination of total amount and structural tools, reduce investment and consumption costs, meet the needs of real economy financing, and achieve multiple effects such as "stable total amount, structure adjustment, and cost reduction".PSL and other structural tools and "targeted interest rate cuts" in the real estate field are still in the policy toolbox.

In addition, under the demands of stable differences, the cost control effect of bank liabilities is also an important factor that affects LPR to continue to reduce space next year.Since 2023, the liabilities control measures have been introduced, and policy dividends in 2024 will be further released;Liability cost control is difficult to hedge downward pressure on the asset end.

In order to promote the stable spread of deposit and loan, the air rotation arbitrage space in the system in the system and the short -term increase in the early stage, and it is necessary to guide the effective downward cost of the deposit.It is expected that the cost control of the bank liabilities end in 2024 still has measures. For example, continue to reduce the deposit interest rate or upper limit of MPA assessment, to further self -discipline and standardize high -interest active debt products such as agreements, notices, and agreements to promote small and medium banks to reduce long -end deposit interest rateswait.

The next stage of monetary policy outlook

Last week, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that "the cost of promoting the comprehensive financing of social comprehensive financing has fallen."Looking forward to the monetary policy, the focus and direction of the next stage?In order to achieve "flexible and moderate, accurate and effective", how will structural tools play a role?China Merchants SecuritiesR & D center macro high levelAnalystMa Ruichao brought us his interpretation.

Policies may weaken next year

Ma Ruichao: The Central Economic Work Conference sets the monetary policy next year: "flexible and moderate, accurate and effective". Compared with the "accurate and powerful" this year, it has converged semantically.Looking back at history, consistent with the expression of 2020 ("flexible and accurate, reasonable and moderate"). In fact, the central bank launched two reductions in 2021, but the policy interest rate remained unchanged.It is expected that the interest rate reduction of policy interest rates next year may not be as good as this year.

In the next step, how to view market interest rate trend such as loan interest rates next year?We believe that we must start with the targeted and synergies of interest rate policies.

Enhance the targetedness and synergy of interest rate policies

Ma Ruichao: The third quarter of the third -quarter cargo report that just disclosed stated: "Enhanced the targeted and synergistic of interest rate policy", this sentence conveys the change of interest rate policy ideas: In the traditional sense, the central bank is to reduce policy interest rates and pass interest rate transmission through interest rate transmission.To guide market interest rates, but in the context of damage to the asset liability statement of the entity department, the previous interest rate transmission mechanism will be weakened.Therefore, the central bank is required to fulfill the goal of "promoting the stability of social comprehensive financing costs in comprehensive financing" in combination with innovative ideas.The so-called targetedness is the interest rate level to reduce specific loans. For example, this year the central bank promotes banks to reduce the interest rate of 73bp of residential housing loan, which can save 160-170 billion yuan in interest expenses for borrowers each year.At the same time as interest rates, we must consider the cost of bank liabilities at the cost of bank liabilities, and keep the net interest rate difference at a reasonable level.

In terms of specific operations, it is expected that the central bank will continue to play the role of LPR reform efficiency and market -based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates on the one hand, and guide the downward cost of physical financing with market -oriented means. On the other hand, it will be flexibly usedWait for monetary policy to reduce the cost of bank liabilities and open space for the downward of the loan interest rate.

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