This week's Outsiders 丨 The Federal Reserve leads "Central Bank Super Week", how does the PMI performance in Europe and the United States perform in December and the United States

hotly discussed information Popular information

   Thehotly discussed information Fed, the European Bank of China, and the Bank of the United Kingdom will usher in a meeting of interest talks; many European and American economic data will also be announced; whether international oil prices can be stabilized.

  Last week, the international market was changing, and the golden refreshing historical high shocks were shocked.

  In terms of market, U.S. stocks rose for the sixth consecutive week, and the Dow rose 0.01%.The S & P 500 index rose 0.21%, and the Naiga Index rose 0.69%.The three major European stock indexes performed well. The British FTSE 100 index rose 0.33%weekly, the German DAX 30 index rose 2.21%week, and the French CAC 40 index rose 2.46%weekly.

  This week, there are quite a lot of views. The Fed, the European Bank of China, and the Bank of the United Kingdom will usher in a interest conference, and the market pays attention to the statement of policy path prospects.In Europe and the United States in December and the United States, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) will announce that the recovery process has attracted attention.The US Treasury Department will conduct a $ 37 billion 10 -year auction and a 20 -year bond auction of $ 13 billion.


  The Federal Reserve's resolution is coming

  U.S. President Biden will face an impeachment voting this week. Republicans of the House of Representatives in the United States plan to conduct a comprehensive vote in the House of Representatives this week to formally launch an investigation against Biden.During an investigation of the Republicans about Biden's son Hunter Biden's overseas transaction, it was found that Biden's behavior may be suspected of "abuse of power, obstructing justice and corruption."

  U.S. Financial Minister Yellen said last week that if the outside world considers the explanation of the upcoming data, "thought deeply", the bond market's expectations for the Fed's operation can be a useful supplement to the monetary policy.When asked if the bond market predicts whether the Federal Reserve had interest rate cuts too early, Yellen refused to comment.

  This year's last interest rate meeting was held this week. Although the Fed Chairman Powell has hinted many times, it is still possible to further raise interest rates in the future. The market has basically excluded this possibility, and the first interest rate cut is expected to begin in summer.For Powell, a difficult task facing the next thing will be to persuade the outside world. The short -term interest rate cut will not be considered within the scope, especially if the inflation data continues the downward trend.Investors will find the idea of the Fed's internal interest rate path from the latest quarterly economic outlook and dot -matrix chart.

  In terms of data, the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced before the Fed resolution.Affected by factors such as energy prices fall, it is expected that the overall CPI will be reduced from 3.2%to 3.1%, which is flat. Whether the inflation can exceed the expected decline or affect the expected potential interest rate cut node.In addition, the United States will also announce the monthly retail sales monthly rate, manufacturing output, December manufacturing, service industry PMI index and other key data, may continue to show signs of economic slowdown.

  In terms of corporate financial reports, companies worth paying attention to this week include Oracle, Adobe, Kaishi, Jiangsen Self -Control and Jabil.

  Crude oil and gold

  Crude oil futures fell for the seventh consecutive week, setting the longest record since 2018.The contract of WTI crude oil in recent months has fallen 3.83%to US $ 71.23/barrel. Brent crude oil has fallen 3.85%in recent months to US $ 75.84/barrel.

  Since the OPEC+Organization (OPEC+) meeting of the last month proposed that since the first quarter of 2024, the oil price has been facing additional pressure, and the market has questioned whether all participating countries will comply with quota regulations.Russian President Putin went to Saudi Arabia last week.The statement issued by the Kremlin Palace stated: "In the energy field, the two sides praise the close cooperation between the two countries, and the success of OPEC+the country in strengthening the stability of the global oil market. The two countries emphasize the importance of continuing this cooperation and all participation in participationCountries must abide by the OPEC+agreement to serve the interests of manufacturers and consumers and support global economic growth. "

  Ole Hansen, director of the commodity strategy of Shengbao Bank, said in the report: "Crude oil prices are expected to stabilize. However, because of sufficient global supply, it may be questionable whether some producers will fulfill their promises.It will increase the risk of OPEC+to hold an emergency meeting. "

  The price of international gold has fallen, and it has fallen for the first time in the past for the first time.The COMEX Gold Futures Contract, which was delivered in December of the New York Commodity Exchange in December, fell 3.51%to $ 1998.30/ounce.

  Gold broke the US $ 2150 in the early morning of Monday on Monday on Monday, and then the gold price was suppressed.Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said in a market comment that American data shows that the economy is currently in a very good position.The employment report seems to have fallen into the U.S. Monetary Policy Eagle camp, and they hope that the Fed will continue its interest rate hike cycle.

  UBS reports that gold once again proves its effective role in the return of decentralized investment portfolio and hedge risk.Even so, don't "chase" the gain of gold now. "Considering the rebound in the past few weeks and the Fed's radical interest rate cut expectations, we will not chase the price in the short term."

  The British and European central banks are expected to be motionless

  According to the data released last week, due to energy prices, Germany's inflation rate in November fifth in November for the fifth consecutive month.The German Statistics Bureau said: "In the past two months, many energy products are cheaper than a year ago, and the price situation now has obviously relieved. The annual inflation of food has continued to weaken, but it is still much higher than the overall inflation."

  The European Central Bank governor Ragard said in an October meeting that the risk of economic growth tilted downward, but inflation is still too high, and did not give a clear signal to whether it was further raised.However, from the recent speeches of officials, the ending cycle has basically been confirmed. The European Central Bank Eagle Management Committee Schunabel admitted last week that he gave up his position on interest rate hikes.Considering the trend of industrial product deporting price index (PPI) in the past 12 months, some members of the council, including the Villeroy of France, also acknowledged that the next interest rate change in 2024 may be reduced.

  At present, the market is expected to start interest rates at the Central Bank of Europe in April next year, and it is concerned whether Lagarde will issue similar signals at the press conference.This week, Europe will announce the December PMI report. It is expected that the manufacturing and service industry activities are expected to rise slightly, but it will still be below the glory division.

  The Bank of England warned in a financial stability report last week that due to high levels of interest rates, high -risk enterprises such as private credit and leverage loans are easily affected."Although so far, these markets have almost no signs of pressure, but the deterioration of macroeconomic prospects may lead to a significant restructuring of credit risk. The overall risk environment is still challenging, reflecting weak economic activities, global growth and inflation prospects are facing further risks.Geopolical tensions have intensified. "The bank said that the comprehensive impact of interest rate hikes has not yet appeared.

  This week, the Bank of England may also continue to follow the soldiers.In November, the CPI fell to 4.6%, far lower than the peak of 11.1%last year, but the salary growth and the inflation of the service industry were still high.British President Belly has recently tried to curb people's guessing to cut interest rates in advance.

  Watch the point this week


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